How did Donald Trump win the presidential election? In Part 1 of this four-part series, I showed how Trump had performed historically poorly by the standards of challengers in post-incumbent elections (i.e., elections with no incumbent on the ballot following the reelection of an incumbent). In Part 2, I applied the same analysis to show that Trump also didn’t do especially well in the battleground states but won because the handful of states he flipped narrowly from the Democrats were almost all large states. In Part 3, I looked at turnout — specifically, what percentage of the voting-eligible population voted...
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