She noticed that Trump actually thrived in many towns where the economy was booming, like Elkhart County, Indiana, with low unemployment, strong exports, plenty of manufacturing jobs, and big benefits from Obama-era recession stimulus and auto bailout packages. So Freund dug deeper into the data, and compared the voting patterns in the 2016 election to those in 2012, when Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney lost to Democratic incumbent Barack Obama. After analyzing election results, as well as economic and demographic data from the US Census Bureau, she concluded in a Peterson Institute analysis published this month (pdf) that “manufacturing employment...
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